3 minute read
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has today published the Seventh Carbon Budget which sets out the required emission pathway for the period 2038-2042 to ensure that the UK meets its 2050 net zero goal. The pathway breaks down the required emission cuts by sector, suggesting the level of measures required to meet the emission reduction target for the period, along with the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035, previously announced by the UK Government at COP29 in November 2024, based on advice from CCC.
The Sixth Carbon Budget, advising on emissions for 2032-2037, used multiple pathways based on different technology and behavioural change levels to demonstrate the range of potential routes to reach Net Zero. As the carbon budget periods approach 2050 there will be less scope for alternative pathways, so the decision was made for the Seventh Carbon Budget to determine a single pathway with contingency actions to cover potential sources of uncertainty in the pathway.
NPL has been working with CCC since 2023, through a part-time secondment by Thomas Smith, Higher Scientist, to support the uncertainty analysis covering all areas of the pathway. The metrology expertise of NPL has played an important role in ensuring that the report provides a suitable uncertainty framework for the CCC advice to government while supporting and providing confidence in the analysis across the Seventh Carbon Budget. Projections of population and GDP up to 2050 provide an important indication of future demand and therefore emissions across the economy. A key challenge for the secondment was understanding the uncertainties in these projections and assessing the impacts this would have on future emissions.
On the publication of the report and the secondment, Thomas Smith said: The Seventh Carbon Budget is a significant report that sets out the pathway to achieving net zero in the UK. Having such well researched advice will really benefit the country in the coming decades. Working over such long timescales uncertainty can be a major challenge, so it has been very rewarding to help the CCC overcome this and provide a robust pathway to achieve our emission targets up to 2050.
CCC Head of Net Zero Dr Emily Nurse said: “Uncertainties are inevitable over a 25-year pathway. It’s important to understand the scale of them and to develop appropriate contingency options to mitigate any risk they pose to achieving targets. We are very grateful to NPL for their support in this important part of our analysis.”
Read the Seventh Carbon budget report
27 Feb 2025